Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. It examines assessments of probability, frequency, and causation; as well as how decisions are rendered under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Topics covered include dynamic, everyday, and group decision making; individual differences; and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making.
Offering up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, this volume has everything a psychology student needs for BPS accreditation, whilst drawing out the practical applications for non-psychology students with plentiful examples from business, economics, sport, law, and medicine. The latest addition to the BPS Textbooks in Psychology series, this thorough text provides a succinct, reader-friendly account of the field of judgment and decision making.
Preface and Acknowledgements 1
1 Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality 2
2 The Nature and Analysis of Judgment 8
3 Judging Probability and Frequency 18
4 Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias 32
5 Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments 40
6 Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking 54
7 Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 64
8 Preference and Choice 78
9 Confidence and Optimism 92
10 Judgment and Choice over Time 106
11 Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory 118
12 Risk 132
13 Decision Making in Groups and Teams 146
14 Cooperation and Coordination 160
15 Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain 174
Appendix 188
References 189
Sources and Credits 209
Author Index 211
Subject Index 219
