Economists insist that recovery is at hand, yet unemployment remains high, real estate values continue to drop, and governments stagger under record deficits. The End of Growth proposes a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable, natural limits. Richard Heinberg's latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging, highly readable style, it shows why growth is being blocked by three factors: Resource depletion, Environmental impacts, and Crushing levels of debt. These converging limits will force us to re-evaluate cherished economic theories, and to reinvent money and commerce. The End of Growth describes what policy makers, communities and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth's budget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than continuing to pursue the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding Gross Domestic Product.
Acknowledgments Introduction: The New Normal Why Is Growth Ending? The End of Growth Should Come As no Surprise Why Is Growth So Important? But Isn't Growth normal? The Simple Math of Compounded Growth. The Peak Oil Scenario From Scary Theory to Scarier Reality Bursting Bubbles What Comes After Growth? A Guide to the Book 1. The Great Balloon Race Economic History in Ten Minutes Economics for the Hurried 20th-Century Economics Business Cycles, Interest Rates, and Central Banks Mad Money I Owe You 2. The Sound of Air Escaping Houses of Cards Setting the Stage: 1970 to 2001 Shadow Banks and the Housing Bubble What Goes Up The Mother of All Manias Limits to Debt All Loaned Up and nowhere to Go Stimulus Duds, Bailout Blanks Actions by Other nations and Their Central Banks After All the Arrows have Flown Deflation or Inflation? The Bridge to nowhere 3. Earth's Limits: Why Growth Won't Return Oil Other Energy Sources How Markets May Respond to Resource Scarcity: The Goldilocks Syndrome Water Food Metals and Other Minerals Climate Change, Pollution, Accidents, Environmental Decline, and natural Disasters 4. Won't Innovation, Substitution, and Efficiency Keep Us Growing? Substitutes Forever Energy Efficiency to the Rescue Business Development: The Cavalry's on the Way Moore's or Murphy's Law? Specialization and Globalization: Genies at Our Command 5. Shrinking Pie: Competition and Relative Growth in a Finite World The China Bubble Currency Wars Post-Growth Geopolitics Population Stress: Old vs. Young on a Full Planet The End of Development ? The Post-Growth Struggle Between Rich and Poor 6. Managing Contraction, Redefining Progress The Default Scenario Haircuts for All...or Free Money? Post-Growth Money Post-Growth Economics Gross national Happiness Our Problems Are Resolvable In Principle 7. Life After Growth Setting Priorities Transition Towns Common Security Clubs Putting the new Economy on the Map What Might a Sustainable Society Look Like? Perspective Notes Index About the Author
